Subject: Re: Ot scaling back stocks
“For a simple-minded retail investor like myself, the only reason to own anything other than equities is to moderate the volatility of the overall portfolio. Once I worked out that volatility was not risk, I just bought equities. Like rayvt, I use slow-twitch timing to avoid serious downturns, and sometimes it steers me wrong; but never for long. I have reasonable confidence in my ability to dodge the mega-bears (e.g. 2001 and 2008); and that gives me the patience to put up with the regular ones. On balance, I just feel better being 100% wrong part of the time than partly wrong all the time.”

Did you dodge the mega-bears? I certainly didn’t. 2008/2009 was brutal.

We all have to find a way to sleep at night, and not panic when things look bad. For me that’s been just holding on. I looked into the Global Equities Momentum strategy (a timing strategy much touted about 10 years ago). I couldn’t do it. Couldn’t follow the timing signals.

FWIW I’m about 85% stocks. Sold and donated some Berkshire last year, 5% of port. Still have an awful lot of it. Tax considerations making me delay selling more.