Subject: Re: A few random notes on Q2
PS, in case anyone is interested, the recent figures for my valuation yardstick.
Like book value, it's something that rises approximately the same rate as value, but isn't itself fair value: it needs a constant multiplier, the value of which is unknown. However, more or less by coincidence, it tracks market price fairly closely. All figures in today's money with CPI 322.6.
I included the ratio not because the specific number is meaningful, but because of the trend: to the extent that my "2.5 column" metric has merit, it suggests that the fair P/B ratio has been drifting down a bit, not up, in this stretch. This all comes down to the slowdown in net profit in operating subsidiaries.
Real Real
Quarter Book 2.5 col Ratio
2013-12 186797 306054 1.638
2014-03 190180 305856 1.608
2014-06 193208 315483 1.633
2014-09 196001 325488 1.661
2014-12 199659 330507 1.655
2015-03 201998 334675 1.657
2015-06 203079 341058 1.679
2015-09 204876 345254 1.685
2015-12 211397 349001 1.651
2016-03 214063 329662 1.540
2016-06 214900 330808 1.539
2016-09 219328 344223 1.569
2016-12 230000 358253 1.558
2017-03 235819 371717 1.576
2017-06 241012 378468 1.570
2017-09 246289 379055 1.539
2017-12 276897 391224 1.413
2018-03 273598 395652 1.446
2018-06 279101 412519 1.478
2018-09 292718 438052 1.496
2018-12 271987 433101 1.592
2019-03 287880 451983 1.570
2019-06 294910 459896 1.559
2019-09 306668 472756 1.542
2019-12 327876 499798 1.524
2020-03 286032 452823 1.583
2020-06 309321 463637 1.499
2020-09 328208 471590 1.437
2020-12 355666 515975 1.451
2021-03 360038 542472 1.507
2021-06 372914 581834 1.560
2021-09 373176 597545 1.601
2021-12 397470 604017 1.520
2022-03 392439 609887 1.554
2022-06 346433 581663 1.679
2022-09 337471 573429 1.699
2022-12 337634 591645 1.752
2023-03 373790 570743 1.527
2023-06 395662 590809 1.493
2023-09 382000 567517 1.486
2023-12 408936 605901 1.482
2024-03 413322 617743 1.495
2024-06 430321 629677 1.463
2024-09 448280 652350 1.455
2024-12 461577 666937 1.445
2025-03 460159 666591 1.449
2025-06 466106 678111 1.455