Subject: Re: 140% “GDP Playing w/Fire”..50% higher?
Glad you stayed disciplined LTB and navigated the tech bubble quite well. OTOH, as a young investor who was finally making reasonable coin, I could not resist the sirens and felt the Envy, watching others make easy money. So I switched up from sensible Fidelity funds like Fidelity Contrafund and plowed half my assets into their Biotech & Tech funds which subsequently crashed. Looking back, it was a real blessing to happen in early adulthood and motivated me to dive in to understand the process of real valuation and real investing before being enlightened by Warren & Charlie.


I think I've seen this same post (or something very similar) regularly for the last twenty four years. I think it needs a name. I suggest "The annual double-down." We're behind now boys but if we keep doubling the bet eventually we'll come out on top. Graham commented in his book (and Buffett took it to heart) that tech wasn't investible because the companies need to reinvent themselves every five years. That was before tech companies benefitted from massive network effects in their businesses. The principle of not paying more than a stock is worth remains true today but eliminating tech companies from consideration is a mistake.