Subject: Re: I am noodling on a major change to my portfolio.
"The spreadsheet shows historical portfolio value as a function of time to retire and allocation."

Actually it shows portfolio values and matching probabilities.

As we know, the future portfolio value depends on the current interest rate and stock market valuation. Long term, the optimal allocation is always heavy in stocks. However near term (5-10 years), with 3-month T-Bills currently yielding 5.4% and the P/E on the S&P 500 at 23 ($4553/$196 Dec 31 earnings estimate), my guess would be that the optimal allocation is heavy in T-Bills. Thoughts?