Subject: Re: Vance Failed. No Deal.
It's becoming clear that the Administration never solved this problem. It's not entirely clear they actually had any clear plan for how they would respond if Iran did the obvious thing and seized the strait. They were obviously aware of that possibly (again, it's one of the most-studied problems in the theater), but it's not clear they had figured out what they were going to do once it happened.

Or we could seize a number of the islands that Iran uses including Kharg and make them bomb their own production equipment.

That wouldn't open the strait. It doesn't solve the problem. They'd prefer not to bomb their own production facilities, but whether they do or not it can't prevent them from attacking civilian vessels transiting the strait.

The U.S. blockade of the strait will be interesting. What will America do if a Chinese owned tanker loaded with Iranian oil goes through the strait? Will they bomb it? Seize it? What will they do about a Russian tanker, like the one they allowed to go to Cuba? And if they do block everything, how long before we're paying $10 for a gallon of gas in the U.S.?