Subject: Re: Taken to the Woodshed
Reading the transcript of the earnings call, I found out that the biggest part of the $40.5m fair value/other adjustments was the writing off of loans in default, which I didn't anticipate. They mention a couple of times in the call that the macro environment is challenging, with low savings rates and high defaults.
However, my perception of the macro environment is pretty good: very low unemployment, wages rising, moderating inflation. Makes me worry about what happens to the company when the macro environment really goes south in a bad recession, one in which the government isn't handing out checks to everyone to keep the economy from crashing like the Covid recession.
The company hopes to have more of their business funded by third parties, not keep on the books nearly as high a percentage of the loans written as has been the case the last couple years. That would lessen the pain and risk of the macro environment going south.