Subject: Re: Trade deal with China reached
Either way, it's not the result of Biden's Administration failing to enforce, but because of other factors that made it all-but-impossible for U.S. exporters to actually take advantage of that two-year window. Whether because of the damage inflicted to U.S. exporters over the previous two years of the trade war, the unexpected occurrence of COVID, or the poorly structured deal that only resulted in a two year commitment in the first place: the seeds of failure were planted long before Biden was elected.

Many things can be true. I'm sure there's at least one in all the multiverse where Biden was a competent, non-senile President but that's not our particular multiverse.

?Do you not recall the CHIPS Act?

We don't buy advanced semiconductors from China.

The CHIPS act is indirectly aimed at China. Its real purpose is to incentivize TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation) and Samsung to invest here in the US in the event of a Chinese incursion into Taiwan such that global chip production isn't catastrophically cut off. It's also a lifeline to Intel, who in 5 years or so will be "US SMC" or some such.

There are smart ways to go about a targeted lessening of dependence on China for critical things - including but not limited to broadening our import sources to other low-cost producers to diversify our sourcing.

So how many subsidies do you want to hand out to other industries? BTW China supplies the rare earth elements used in most chips:

https://www.onlinescientificre...

The semiconductor industry is highly dependent on rare earth elements (REEs) due to their unique properties that enhance the performance of semiconductor devices. REEs, including lanthanides, yttrium, and scandium, are essential in various processes, from producing powerful magnets to improving display technologies and gas sensing capabilities. However, the global supply of REEs is heavily concentrated in China, which accounts for over 90% of production. This concentration poses significant risks for the U.S. semiconductor industry, which relies on imports from China for critical materials. Despite efforts to diversify sources and develop domestic capabilities, the U.S. remains vulnerable due to a lack of processing infrastructure and environmental challenges. This paper explores the current state of the global REE supply chain, focusing on the U.S.’s dependency on foreign imports. Through scenario planning and strategic recommendations, the study offers insights into how the U.S. can strengthen its domestic supply chain and reduce its reliance on foreign REEs, thereby enhancing its competitiveness in the global semiconductor market.

The US needs to be working with the Aussies and others to stand up rare earth processing plants as well as increasing responsibly sourced ores.

Here's an idea: we could enter into trade agreements and mutually beneficial open-market trading arrangements with other counties in Southeast Asia that would both diversity our sourcing and help check Chinese regional hegemony. We could call it a trans-Pacific partnership, for example. Or we could use industrial policy to encourage domestic production of critical industries regardless of whether that's the free market outcome - although that would involve the government "picking winners and losers."

There's a problem with endless subsidies: the companies that get them tend to end up relying on them. Not a long term marker for success.

I didn't mind the CHIPs act as a 1-time thing but industrial subsidies as lasting policy are not the way to go. What the article mentions

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data reveals that while the U.S. has significant REE deposits, the lack of domestic processing facilities
limits the country’s ability to leverage these resources. This dependency on foreign imports, particularly from China, creates
a bottleneck in the U.S. semiconductor supply chain.

Scenario planning for trade with REE-rich countries demonstrates the potential benefits of diversifying supply sources. Strategic
partnerships with countries like Australia and Japan, which have significant REE reserves and advanced recycling technologies,
could reduce the U.S.’s reliance on Chinese imports. Economic modeling suggests that bilateral agreements and supply chain
diversification efforts would enhance the security of REE supplies, mitigating the risks associated with single-source dependency.

...is a start.