Subject: Re: OT, out
I'm divesting from the US. I've already sold all my T-bills and sold (so far) 96% of my US stock positions including everything in my quant portfolio.

Your ability to time the market top, not only as a theoretical speculation, but actually taking action - is pretty astonishing. Your post was on 17 March 2025, and the S&P500 was peaking (the market peak one extra trading day on 19 March).

Your exit (or at least, your post): S&P600 = $611
Today: S&P500 = $504
Associated gain (from underexposure): 21%

That only applies of course if you suddenly re-enter the market today. If I could get a market outperformance of 21% in one year, I'd be extremely happy to say the least..!

The obvious question is whether you re-enter the market prior to it recovering. Might you use one of your market bottom indicators, as you are posting on the Mechanical Board here, or is likely that your own ethical side of your decision to not hold US stocks is likely to remain I place for quite a while? I suppose existing US stocks and re-entering non-US stocks, given that everything has declined together, would work out well anyway - but the long-term returns tend to trump (whoops) any one-off gains.

- Manlobbi