Subject: Re: OT for Jim: ANCTF
Short disjointed thoughts:
ATD has been a fabulous business. In some ways, it's a bit of a mystery: with so many acquisitions they seem to be edging towards the toxic category "roll up", but for decades they have actually made their acquisitions work. The only risk I ever appreciated is what if their exceptionalism in that regard ends? Maybe it's not something you can extrapolate?
I owned it for a while and sold on some temporary strength to buy something else with temporary (big) weakness. I make a nice bundle on the alternative, but I've regretted selling. It is rarely conventionally cheap, so I hesitated to get back in.
Their attempted purchase of Seven & i (Japanese home of 7-Eleven) has been in the news lately, so they are much more in the spotlight than they usually are. That may be what has caused (for them) an unusually large amount of price movement. Seven & i's controlling family's bid just fell through, so maybe the acquisition is still in the cards? The market doesn't like giant acquirers, as a rule.
You mention that you're down on your position entered in 2023. I'm not sure how that's possible, isn't today's price still higher than almost every day in 2023? I guess it's because you're counting in US dollars, and the greenback has soared?
Thanks for the reminder, I might finally get back in at some point...
Once you smooth out the short term squiggles, earnings per share are up about 15-16%/year compounded in the last decade, plus dividends. Not to be sneezed at.
Never sell a farm just because it's winter and there is no crop imminent.
Jim