Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
Between 19491230 and 20190717 there have been 17,503 trading days. Of those days, 1,834 days have been at all-time highs.

Mr Bayes may say, given an all-time high, there were 1,565 occurrences when the SP500 (^S5T in GTR1 speak) 5 years later exceeded a 20% total return. There were 269 days when the total return of the SP500 5 years later did not exceed a 20% return. (The worst 5 year total return after investing at an all-time high was -18%).

So yes, an all-time high is not typical (about 10% of the time), but given an all-time high investing is generally more profitable than a 20% total return.

Aussi