Subject: Re: OT: Berkshire or mortgage
Maybe a heresy, but I don't believe Buffett when he said the only certain stock tip is to buy Berkshire when it tanks after he has moved on.

There is a large cone of uncertainty around Berkshire's future returns. Say 8% +/- 4%.

So even for a US homeowner with a 30Y 6.7% pre-tax or 4-5% post tax mortgage; paying down mortgage may be better.

Of course this is a false dichotomy. There are multiple other options including buying a 60-40 stock-bond portfolio (or just buy VBIAX). Berkshire is nothing special anymore.