Subject: Re: warning about using AI in MI
The article assumes on is using AI in the form of LLM’s but this isn’t at all indicative of using a mixture of fundamental and momentum based machine learning to construct predictive models.
My “first” somewhat primitive ML based system trained on data for 9/14/2015 till 9/14/21 and has been running out of sample data from 1/19/22 till the present holding 25 stocks with no retraining.
The SP500 is up 45% in that period the simulation is up 116%. This is with a 163% annual turnover.
This only used 46 mostly fundamental features but used an ensemble of different machine learning models including both tree and linear based regression and different buy and sell criteria based on the future predictions.
I have better current models but have not yet invested significant sums in the ML models yet as I’m one of those older retirees who logically should minimize the risk factors. But one has to have some challenges in life. But I am absolutely convinced the tools available are a very big improvement for analyzing factors for their performance and how they interact.