Subject: Re: OT: Bitcoin FOMO
So, is it foolish to allocate 1-5% of one's portfolio in case this revolution continues?

I think we've had this conversation before, but I think it's reasonably low risk to just use some moving averages. Jump in when the price is rising, and jump out when it's not. Jim's "buy when it's down 75-80%" has worked so far. I'd guess it might have done better using a 50% threshold, as then you could have caught the January 2018 and March 2020 relative bottoms too.

I started backtesting at EMA 5/25, and quickly found there were way too many whipsaws. And tried numerous SMA's too. I have come up with something reasonable for me, which is pretty darn conservative, so a little less than a year ago dipped my toe into the BTC world. Right when the ETF's showed up. (There is also a BTC micro Future - MBT at Interactive Brokers, which is 0.1 BTC.)

My strategy is conservative enough, that barring an overnight "It's a scam!" plunge to zero, I felt comfortable putting in 5%. But I hadn't touched BTC before I'd done CaptKerosene's 100 hours of research. And I won't buy any other Crypto products.

So far so good. It's always nice to start an MI strategy on an upswing - BTC can go down quite a ways and I'd get stopped out with a profit.

I wish I could figure out how to share a screenshot in Google Drive or Dropbox without sharing my whole life. It's a good looking back test.

In general, I'm willing to participate if the price is going up. No different than using BCC or other timing systems really. (Right?) :-}

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