Subject: Re: Protecting the Downside
Growth & Trend Timing.

https://www.philosophicalecono...

51 page PDF

Key info is on page 46. "The above construction of GTT–using the dual signals of real retail sales growth and industrial production growth–is the preferred “recession-timing” construction shown in the beginning of the piece. As you can see, the strategy on that construction consistently outperforms everything, by a very large margin."

Do not use UNRATE (unemployment rate), since that is subject to political pressure.