Subject: Re: ideas betond BRK
I am a long time holder of Alimentation Couche Tard (ATD)and noted that you recently started a pos

Indeed.
I'm planning on adding shortly. I would have done so today, but of course it's Canada Day (Dominion Day to old fogeys), so the markets are closed.

I don't think vehicle electrification will kill their business. Value growth might be slower, but that's hardly fatal. (heck, it's possible that the recent battery developments in China actually work and spread, and five minute "fill ups" remain a thing). A bigger headwind is that they have historically been richly valued, so the recent weakness appears like a good deal only in that context. They're still not conventionally cheap, so things still have to go pretty well for it to be a good deal at these levels.

Peak-to-date rolling EPS is around C$4.20, cyclically adjusted maybe C$4.00 by eyeball. Price is C$67.69.
My rule of thumb is that one will do well with an entry below [10 times average real EPS 5-10 years later]. You'll generally do "OK" buying at 12 times that number. For the 10:1 rule, i.e. for real earnings to average $6.77 5-10 years from now, trend EPS would have to grow at a rate of about inflation + 7.2%/year. Meh, it could happen. The trend has been about nominal 13-14%/year in the last decade. So the trend has to continue, but only at a reduced rate.

My biggest thought is that I continue to kick myself for not piling into Dollarama (DOL.TO) when I studied it years ago, another Canada-based favourite of mine that I have long considered as an alternative.
Here is a 15 year chart:
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui...
It's sort of like Costco: never seems conventionally cheap, but those who ignored that and bought anyway have done insanely well.

Jim