Subject: Re: Vance Failed. No Deal.
I hope that the Administration has a plan to deal with the two obvious risks to doing this. The first, of course, is the devastating global economic impact this will have. We're now at the point where nearly all the oil that was in transit before the war has reached its destination port. So now starts one of the biggest energy crises in modern history (Trump does love to do things that are record-breaking, never in history). It's going to be destructive for everyone - and particularly the Gulf states who are along with Iran going to lose a lot of their revenue.

China gets 45% of their oil through the Gulf. They're going to be burning up phone lines to Tehran telling them to make a deal.
The other thing are the mines themselves - the Chinese aren't going to be gung-ho about sailing their brand new pretty Navy through mine infested waters. They'd rather the US Navy do that.

So the solution here is likely to be: blockade all tankers carrying Iranian oil, regardless of whose flag they carry. It's unlikely China will let Iran re-flag their ships because that would mean a) China taking Iran's side, openly b) China really pissing off the other Gulf states, from which they buy lots of oil.

Reason b) is why you won't see Chinese destroyers escorting Iranian tankers.

The Russian-flagged tanker that went to Cuba was a "so what". Putin sent them a load of oil and didn't get paid for it. Humanitarian crisis delayed a bit and Russia got zero dollars.

If the Chinese send anything to the Gulf...it'll be to help clear mines.