Subject: Re: Chart: timing with Nas100 RS screen
By the timing that I like best, there are only a few periods where the timing has you out for more than a few months.
Here is the OUT statistics for 2/1985 to 12/2025:
# of months out # of times
1 5
2 3
3 5
4 1
6 1
8 1
12 1
13 1
17 1
18 1
The 18 & 12 is really a 31 month bear market with one whiplash IN month in the middle. 10/2000 to 4/2003. The dot-com bust.
The 17 is the bear market 2/2008 to 6/2009. The financial/bank bust.
The 13 is the 2002 bear market, 2/2022 to 2/2023.
Really, just 3 significant out-of-market periods in 41 years. Hard to make predictions on something that only happened 3 times in 41 years.
You don't need to be perfect, you just need to be Good Enough™
I don't mind not catching the absolute bottom, since I'm sitting cozy in short-term T-bills while waiting for the storm to pass and the sun to come out.
I have a theory why the "overlaps" works so well.
Here's the CAGRs for the number of stocks from 10 to 1:
10 24.5%
9 24.6%
8 25.2%
7 25.8%
6 26.7%
5 27.4%
4 28.6%
3 29.8%
2 31.7%
1 28.7%
Taking the overlaps from the top 5, you are essentially doubling up on some of those top 5 stocks.