Subject: Re: One way to stop Russian oil shipments
I guarantee you nobody or very few in the states cares who Orban is or could even name the Slovakian Prime Minister.

Orban's been a regular interview for Tucker Carlson for years, and Hungary is a poster child for a big slice of the right wing base. He's been a hero to them for longer than Trump:

It is rare for the leader of any foreign country, much less one the size of Kentucky, to become the object of such intense American scrutiny. Mr. Orban looms large in debates over democracy, authoritarianism and liberalism not just because Hungary is a political outlier compared with other members of NATO and the European Union. It is also because Mr. Orban’s career reveals the full extent to which conservatism has been transformed in the first decades of the 21st century. Mr. Orban exemplifies the combative spirit and scornful attitude of a Right that sees itself as culturally belittled, isolated, dispossessed and under siege from forces undermining Western civilization from within. Mr. Orban is not a Trump wannabe. He is the leader that populist-nationalists hoped Mr. Trump would become.

https://www.aei.org/articles/v...

They know who he is the way you know who Meloni is. He's the foreign leader that was their first and favorite example of the type of conservative anti-globalist nationalism that the MAGA base loves.

Well - good for them! Only took 3 years for them to get moving on it and this was - let's recall - after they laughed at Trump when he suggested this in his first term.

Maybe they should have listened to him.

I think it might be helpful for you to read the article upthread. The EU has some very serious structural elements that prevent them from doing things like this. The EU was trying to do this for oil, but was constantly thwarted by Hungary and Slovakia vetoing (or threatening to veto) the sanctions. Because sanctions have to be unanimous. Which is why the sanctions look the way they do, with every country in Europe zeroing out their oil (years ago!) but Hungary and Slovakia getting a full exemption. And because energy (typically) isn't purchased by governments, but is purchased by utilities and private companies, national governments can't just flick a switch to either require their companies to violate their long-term contracts or make the investments needed to have alternative sources overnight. Overall the EU have successfully cut their gas imports by about two thirds - and even more if you take out Hungary and Slovakia, again. This effort to zero out Russian imports is fraught with legal peril - it's a kludge that's going to send many of their energy companies into court battles that they'll likely lose, because the absence of sanctions means that many (most?) won't be able to invoke force majeure to stop their legal obligation to continue imports. They've moved pretty quick, all things considered.

So the EU - with its vast regulatory powers and ability to dictate to each of its member states right down to the lowest tea pot what to do - is utterly powerless to stop rogue behavior from 2 of its smallest economies, is that it? And somehow this is Trump's problem to solve?,/i>

Yep. The EU framework requires unanimity to impose sanctions like this. Weird, right? Despite the caricature of Brussels as an uber-powerful "One World Government in the wings" type of leviathan, they actually have a discrete remit of authority and can't just do anything they want.

This is not Trump's "problem to solve," but me trying to explain to you why it has been nearly impossible for the EU to stop Russian oil shipments entirely. Hungary and Slovakia have effective veto power over sanctions, and didn't have any alternative sources for oil other than Russian pipeline. So they threatened to kill all sanctions unless they were exempted. So they are the only countries in Europe importing Russian oil. If Trump's plan for doing something else to Russia involves stopping Russian oil shipments to Europe, then Trump would have to find a way to resolve that structural problem and/or get Hungary and Slovakia to stop importing so much oil.

This isn't the EU refusing to do a simple thing. There are actual reasons, rooted in the structure of the EU, why they were unable to just tell Hungary and Slovakia to pound sand and get EU oil imports down to zero.