Subject: Re: Notice how close we are to peak historical levels
The market is up about 6% in the 4 months since this post was written. That's why I was long the market back then, why I'm still long now, and have been for decades.

Of course, quoting a 4-month return is meaningless, and I'm not trying to pick on you. Investors' time frames should be measured in periods of at least 3 years, preferably 5 or 10 years. My point is that trying to time the market based on some sort of valuation argument is futile.

A little early to be declaring victory. There have been (and will be in the future) long periods of low returns in the stock market - these typically (always?) start from a period of high valuation and end with a period of low valuation (by definition?).

Is your argument that we are not in a period of high valuation? Or that this high valuation period will continue indefinitely? Or that it is not possible to identify when such periods start and end? Or even that measuring valuation is not possible?

tecmo
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