Subject: Re: Bear Catchers
Craig

I remember the article. But I think the consensus from either that article or from other research was that in order to predict a recession, we should look at either industrial production or retail sales. In our current environment, neither would have told us to hedge. Except retail sales did dip below zero for a short time in March 2022 and a tiny bit in November 2022. Doesn't look like much help to me.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/gr...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/gr...

I could be wrong about this. Maybe someone else could clarify the situation.

Also, as Jim previously mentioned, the Nasdaq NH-NL EMA 13 was spot on, particularly for Saul Stocks. https://schrts.co/SZjxxRkh

Sandywater