Subject: Re: Climate Change +Inflation Great for Insurance
Facts?

I’m going to disregard the name calling, condescension, and insults and stick to JUST facts. They matter.

I equate FACTS with hard data, statistics. I’m old school. We have hard data dating back to about the mid 1800s. Climate “cycles” are acknowledged to run roughly about a century or so. That equals, by my calculation, about 1.5 to 2 full climate cycles to analyze FACTUALLY. Which is almost statistically insignificant. All climatologists and meteorologists concur 100% that variations in climate cycles occur and variation has likely been extreme. Subjective historical observation but clear anecdotes there. The unanswered question and source of this whole issue —is WHY? The answer is not 1 size fits all. There are a myriad of sources/variables. But to some one with a hammer…the complex becomes simple.

So if we limit discussion to facts, as determined by hard data, we have 175 years to examine.

I’ve limited my comments to what is KNOWN factually, not a consensus of beliefs. Or what some one pretends to have been told occured 57 million years ago.

Like Buffett and Jain and especially the late Charlie Munger (who didn’t soften his comments as diplomatically as Ajit and Warren) I’m an agnostic who acknowledges some impact of modern industrial era behavior on present climate. This is basic science. And sure, fearful this may be the long tail, black swan that’s the start of something catastrophic…if there’s 1% chance of that…we need to alter our behavior! Yes! What’s the harm in reducing carbons? Even in reducing general pollution? Zero. If you eat a healthy diet and it prevents colon cancer when your intent was prevent to prevent heart disease— that doesn’t make a good diet a bad thing. Berkshire invests more than anyone in renewables, I personally recycle, avoid plastics. I’m pro environment. Pro health.

But in terms of this INEVITABLE path to self destruction… Jain and Buffett are now placing the largest bets of their long lives BY FAR: $10 Billion + bets Quarterly…on the OTHER SIDE of this speculative furor. Does it at least raise your curiosity that THOSE WHO ARE THE SMARTEST AT PROBABILITY analysis, namely the stewards of our capital, are willing to make every bet possible reasonably priced ON THE OTHER SIDE? Surely you must notice? Buffett’s advice to Jain last spring “keep writing!”

So, like Buffett, I remain selfishly hopeful citizens, states, municipalities, and other Insurers seeking to sell off risk tranches—continue to buy what’s being pitched as gospel. It’s been an economic bonanza to our bottom line. It’s making US rich. Reviewable annually. Actions speak louder than words. And the actions here are unmistakable.

Facts matter.