Subject: Re: more fun is South China Sea
So both China and the US need to avoid escalation to open hostilities. We both know it. But an increased presence will help both the PI and Taiwan.

Of course open hostilities would be bad. As I read recently, we need to call China's bluff (if it is, in fact, a bluff). It is Philippine waters, so they would have to invite us (I assume). But then we could chase Chinese CG and fishing vessels out of Philippine territory. And if they try to ram us, sink them (self defense).** So far the Philippines hasn't invited us to help them at sea, or invoked the defense treaty.

My concerns is that "face" is a very important cultural concept in China. Xi would lose face if he backed down. So I'm skeptical he would, and if we stand up to him there will be some shooting. China would lose, especially if the UK and Australia come in on our side. Not sure what Japan would do. They generally don't venture into waters away from Japan and start shooting. Also, if we (USA) are attacked, would NATO join the party? That would add the UK, French, and German navies to the mix.




**They already almost rammed one of our ships transiting the Taiwan Strait.