Subject: Re: Cars, year one, no commuting
Think one more step ahead.

The buyers of NEW EVs will eventually catch on that they will lose a ton of money in the first 1-2 years due to the massive depreciation. So soon virtually nobody will buy a NEW EV.
So there won't be any 2-year old EVs available.

For there to be 2 year old cars, somebody needs to buy new ones.
But nobody will, so there won't be any used ones in 2 years.

This is like the logic we used when the teacher told us there would be a surprise pop quiz sometime this week. It’s knows as the Surprise Quiz Paradox.

We knew it couldn’t be Friday, because then it wouldn’t be a surprise. And it couldn’t be Thursday, because if it couldn’t be Friday, then Thursday is the last possible day, so by Wednesday we would know it was on Thursday, and it wouldn’t be a surprise.

And of course if it couldn’t be Thursday, it couldn’t be Wednesday because on Tuesday we would know it must be Wednesday but it can’t be because it wouldn’t be a surprise…

And so on. Therefore, the teacher can never give a “surprise” pop quiz.

But they did, so I will have to assume that some people will be buying new EVs (or leasing) and then they will come up in the used market at some discount.

Thank you for coming to my Ted talk.