Subject: Re: Berkshire’s cash and next crash
Yes, I was a young investor (and tech worker) in the .com crash - this doesn't feel anything like that time frame IMO. You now have companies like MSFT and GOOG (and others) printing money at a scale that back then would have been unconceivable.

The amount of money chasing AI and the MEME stocks is "not nothing"; but its definitely on the margin relative the profits being raked in by established companies. The IPO market is nothing like it was back then; today to go public you need a minimum of $100M in sales (ARR) and be profitable (or at least have a path to profitability). If anything the private equity market is where some of the froth is - but its nothing like where the public markets were back in 1999/2000.

Is the S&P-500 above historical valuation levels? Yes, for sure. Could it drop 30% in the short term; absolutely, but a 50% drop with a 10 year bounce-back seems unlikely.

tecmo
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