Subject: GTAA-4/6 outlier - absolute & relative momentu
If one follows the basic GTAA (Ivy) approach to asset allocation, most asset classes are "investable" now as they are above their 8-10m MAs.

However, the GTAA-4 or 6 systems (labeled "Aggressive" and "Moderate" by Faber respectively) have an uncommon situation right now. The top 6 are all "in" on an absolute momentum basis, but on a relative basis only US small caps and Foreign Developed large caps are now ranked higher than Cash (BIL). (Based on an average of ranks of 1,3,6 & 12 month returns).

So the GTAA-4 ranked allocation 3 weeks ago (a full allocation to 4 equity classes ahead of cash) is now cut in half.

The anomaly is due to the passage of the last few weeks with a 1 year lookback. The markets were pretty volatile on a week-week basis starting late last January before they started the real bear in early April. Now that volatility is showing up as the 12 month-lookback rank portion "tail" wags the rankings "dog" now.