Subject: DBE and the recent past
I think basis for DBE is this from Jim (bold by me):

bull market, could go on for years. Then a stretch of 3~5 months without a fresh high, but little net downwards move. Average -8%. Once there has been no fresh high for 5 months, that's a pretty good time to call it the end of the bull rally

The super-long bull market that ended Nov'21 ended with exactly the opposite: Sudden and very sharp down, 20% during the next 5 months (nearly 30% down after 8 months).

The short bull that followed Sep'22-mid'23 (+30%) also ended with again sudden and sharp down.