Subject: Re: Charts and predictions
The slope of the smoothed line appears to be about the same as the slope of the smoothed line in 2008/2009. Maybe not quite the same but close. Do you have thoughts on why the growth is similar to a time period when there was a major financial crisis?

To oversimplify just a tad:
When you have a stretch during which there is no new high in real book per share, the smoothed line will gradually start bending down towards the horizontal. The slope at any point during that time period will be relatively constant as a function of how long it has been since a fresh all time high figure, without very much regard to what book per share is actually doing during that period.

That's by design. The following assumptions are baked in:
(a) real book per share is an adequate yardstick of value. (actually the smoothing uses two different methods, but book is good enough)
(b) current real book per share is never a big exaggeration: real value is never more than 4% below its all time peak, no matter how far it drops nor for how long.

So, the similarity between the slopes in the two stretches is simply because both stretches had several quarters of seeing no fresh all time high in real observable value per share. The average keeps using "96% of peak to date" for each new quarter until a fresh high happens.

Do you have thoughts on why the growth is similar to a time period when there was a major financial crisis? Is it predictive of things to come, or a temporary slow down in growth? Or something else??

This method is an attempt to follow what has been observed, with just enough smoothing to make it smooth. It isn't a fixed slope and it has no forecast, it's just a smoothing of the recent data points. If growth slows over time, the line will go more horizontal. It could go completely horizontal if there is never again any progress in observable value. There is no attempt to estimate what will happen over the long term, it will just follow the numbers.

Of course, I do have my own expectations, unrelated to this data series. I assume the future slope will be a little gentler than the past slope. Berkshire was really doing better than expected for a few years there. But I also assume that it will continue to rise in value at a reasonable rate: I have no reason to think it will ever be worse over the long run than the "monkey with a dartboard" rate of return. I expect to see a future slope of around inflation plus 6-7%.

Jim