Subject: Re: OT: Predictions from US/Israel bombing of Iran
I agree with most of Andromeda's points, but the US isn't suffering because it can't get it's hands on Arab oil -- those shipments wouldn't be due to arrive yet-- it's suffering because of high oil prices due to other not being able to get their hands on Arab oil, and the resulting worldwide tightening of supply.

I think if the straight is open enough that passage is assured for the main customers of Arab oil - China, India, Japan, and South Korea, then it lifts the global price pressure that's causing high oil prices. The fact that US and maybe Panamanian-flagged ships can't cross is a problem for certain shipping firms, sure, but not a huge world-wide problem for the price of oil.

You can see here: www.marinetraffic.com what flags each tanker stuck in the Persian Gulf flies, and watch the ships that sometimes cross the straight.

But, the 1973 oil embargo prevented oil shipments to the US from Arab countries, and reduced total global output by 7% for 5 months, and sparked the stagflation of the late 1970's. I fear this war may already have impacted oil transfer facilities to an extend that it'll have a similar impact (3-4% of global capacity for a year or longer?). Added to that, the Houthis, a fighting force within Yemen, but not supported by the Yemen government, was able to keep the Red Sea closed for a majority of shipping traffic for a year. How much more could Iran fighters, *with* support of the government do in the straight of Hormuz.

My main bet to counterbalance the damages from high oil prices leading us to a period of stagflation is investments in oil companies, Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Exxon (XOM). Oxy because it was a Berkshire purchase long ago, and has US-based oil production, and XOM because it's global and earnings increase with increased oil prices.