Subject: Re: Is NATO figuring it out?
Because we're taking out their ability to launch attacks. I'll also point out that I've flagged the diminished state of our Navy for the past several years on this board and on PA.

But why not also do the escorting? After all, you've also pointed out the diminished state of Europe's naval forces for the past several years. Surely if this is something that can reasonably be done by the European navies - which haven't had the benefit of mobilizing massive numbers to the region in anticipation of the war - then surely we could do it as well.

I mean, I ask the question, but I know the answer. Because that's the really dangerous part of the mission, in terms of potential casualties to actual service members. Firing missiles and bombs from far away has its risks, but you're far less likely to start having a lot of coffins than if you're running ships within one or two dozen miles of the Iranian coast.

If one believes that all we've done is blow up empty parking lots and bounce rubble, sure.

With respect to their nuclear capabilities? We haven't really been blowing anything up with respect to their nuclear program, which is what I was talking about. We blew everything up last year, and Iran didn't rebuild any of it. That's why Gabbard had to dodge so much at her hearing. Iran hadn't done anything to reactivate their enrichment program. So there was nothing to blow up.

And there it is. I knew that leftists didn't actually believe that the Iranians really wanted a nuclear weapon, that instead it was all a bluff. Or something.

It's not a bluff or something - but they have deliberately chosen to remain below breakout even though they've had the capacity to do so for at least a half dozen years. Why? If they wanted to enrich to weapons grade, there's been nothing stopping them since Trump abrogated the JCPOA. Why didn't they do it? They've had the ability to actually create a nuke for a least a decade, but chose not to. Why?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politi...

They wanted to get the benefits of a nuke without escalating. They wanted to de facto have a nuke, but not quite have it in place so that it wouldn't launch a war. But now that they know that the war will be launched whether they rush for breakout or not, there's no longer any reason to delay.

And if the Marines are sent in to seize Kharg Island, then what will you say? Taking that is checkmate for Iran's economy, as 90% of their oil exports move through those terminals. Seize that, the Iranian economy ceases to exist.

I'd say that's pretty unlikely to happen. Trump doesn't want to send Marines to seize Kharg Island, because he doesn't want boots on the ground and the casualties that come with it. Nor does he want the spike in oil and gas prices that would accompany both that attack and the inevitable Iranian response.

But even if it did, Iran's economy doesn't cease to exist if you seize Kharg - oil exports are about 12% of their GDP. It would take a massive hit, but the regime would almost certainly continue to resist. And since we're leaving Iran very shortly, they can certainly hold out the 2-3 weeks that would entail.

That's what strategic inaction buys you.

But that's also what this war buys you. Iran has no less ability to build a nuclear weapon the day after our bombs stop falling now than they did in late February. You can't bomb knowledge. They know how to enrich uranium, they know how to build centrifuges, and you can't stop them from being able to do that.

You could invade with ground forces and seize the country. But we're not going to do that. You could bribe/bargain with them to not develop a nuke. But Trump isn't going to do that, and they wouldn't trust him to keep his bargain. You can threaten them with consequences if they develop a nuke, but they won't trust him not to implement the consequences even if they comply.

Again, no one disputes the downsides to Iran having a nuke. What we question is the wisdom of doing this specific thing, when this specific thing (an air war with no ground troops) doesn't materially affect Iran's ability to have a nuke.