Subject: Re: What can Buffett be thinking? Ibit
You're probably right, but it didn't stop me from playing around with some numbers. ..
Looking at IBIT options expiring December 31, 2025...

I guess that's a "long strangle".

For those who like all those fancy combinations, have a look at a variation of that payoff curve, a "long iron condor". The main difference is that the profit is capped for really big moves, but on the flip side the losses in the middle range are on average much lower. It's what you suggested, but helping to fund the sunk cost in the middle range by writing a VERY out of the money call and a very out of the money put. Those aren't risky because you are protected by the ones with closer strikes, as long as you remember to close everything the same day. The reasoning is that if you think the price move is going to be (say) >=30% but not willing to spend money wagering on a move of 60%+, then you can wager only on a move between those two amounts for less money up front.

Definitely not a recommendation, just continuing your thought experiment.

Jim