Subject: Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate for 2026
What’s a Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate for 2026?
Retirees can increase their spending power by taking a more flexible approach.
https://www.morningstar.com/re...


Morningstar’s 2025 retirement income research suggests that 3.9% is the highest safe starting withdrawal rate for retirees seeking a consistent level of inflation-adjusted spending from year to year, assuming a 90% probability of having funds remaining at the end of an assumed 30-year retirement period. As in the past, we incorporated forward-looking asset-class return and inflation assumptions to arrive at a starting safe withdrawal rate for new retirees, excluding Social Security or other nonportfolio income sources.
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In addition, new retirees don’t have to settle for such a low number—and arguably shouldn’t. Our research concluded that those who are willing to tolerate some fluctuations in their spending can start with a withdrawal rate of nearly 6%. The right level of flexibility in a retiree’s spending system will depend on the individual’s tolerance for spending changes, including the extent to which fixed expenses are covered by nonportfolio income sources.

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