Subject: Re: OT: DEV ex US (IDEV ETF)
Ex-U.S. developed markets could be an interesting diversifier.
...
IMO (not worth much), it's not so much the current valuation level (e.g. current P/E, P/B) that's key, but how these levels are changing over some reasonable past stretch of time...


Looking at the valuation of individual firms makes good sense (rifle method). Some people also look at broader swaths of valuation (shotgun method).

If you're looking at ex-US markets in terms of top level valuation (The CAPE of the FTSE or Topix, etc) looking for good deals, two things to keep in mind:
(a) it's important to compare valuation levels to the historically average valuation levels of the same group, not to the US, and
(b) the group you're looking at has to be broad enough to be meaningful. A market dominated by 1-5 companies, or just 1-2 sectors, won't mean revert predictably to anything at all.

FWIW, here are some historically average CAPE values by sector for Europe and the US. Data up to 2013, I think it might have started 1973.
Top half tend to be more highly valued in the US, vice versa for the bottom half.
                Euro avg    US avg
Energy 15 18
Materials 15 19
Industrials 17 22
Healthcare 21 27

Telecom 20 18
Utilities 18 13
Financials 28 17
Tech 28 32
Here's another table, median historically observed CAPE by country index, all available data up to mid 2012. US and UK had a century, most others start in the 1970s-1980s.
Australia       17.15
Austria 26.80
Belgium 14.89
Brazil 17.34
Canada 19.85
Chile 20.93
China 24.40
France 19.92
Germany 17.90
Greece 15.91
Hong Kong 18.16
India 24.56
Indonesia 16.37
Ireland 10.94
Italy 21.66
Japan 43.89
Malaysia 18.49
Mexico 19.62
Netherlands 11.95
Portugal 16.43
Russia 9.15
Singapore 21.96
South Africa 16.22
South Korea 17.84
Spain 17.33
Sweden 19.54
Switzerland 18.16
Taiwan 19.43
Thailand 11.48
Turkey 17.02
UK 11.84
USA 14.63

So much for shotgun comments.

On the rifle front, here are some international picks of mine. Prices as of Tuesday. Do with them what you will, I don't currently own 'em : )
IFI:WSE at 23.90 PLN, yield 8.41%
KMDS:JKT at 458 IDR, yield 4.73%
6070:TYO at 2493 JPY, yield 4.79%
4481:TYO at 2815 JPY, yield 3.21%
Tickers are in the format used by FT.com

Jim