Subject: Re: Vance Failed. No Deal.
We talked about this. 60% is enough to make a bomb. A bomb that's much heavier that what the US has, but a bomb nonetheless.

And they wouldn't have had that. 60% is where they got to after we abrogated the deal. The JCPOA capped the enrichment limit at 3.67%. Far, far, far below the level for a weapon.

So, yes - I would have preferred that Iran not have 970 pounds of 60% enriched uranium, which is the position they would be in had the JCPOA remained in place and been complied with sufficiently that the sanctions would not have been reimposed under its terms. I would prefer that their uranium be only enriched to 3.67%. I would prefer that we be in that situation today, even if the agreement sunsets in a year or two from now, because Iran wouldn't physically have the 60% enriched uranium. And it would literally be physically impossible for them to get to 970 pounds of 60% enriched uranium within the time it would take to reinstitute sanctions, if they decided to reverse course after the deal sunsets.

The Iranians keep sending drones against the Red Sea pipeline and guess what? It's running at 100% capacity.

It is now, since there's a ceasefire in place and they're no longer sending drones. Before the ceasefire, when Iran sent drones against the pipeline they successfully damaged the pipeline - because it's hard to protect it from drones. It's been repaired, but if Iran wanted to damage it again, we probably wouldn't be able to successfully defend it.

Are the Iranians going to exist in a state of war with their Gulf neighbors for all eternity?

Maybe. Probably not literally, because nothing lasts for eternity. But there have been plenty of conflicts that rage for decades and decades and decades without being resolved.

Not really relevant, though. Just because we don't want a state of war to continue indefinitely doesn't mean there's a way to just go in and stop it using just air power, as we've been trying here. A massive Iraq-style invasion could certainly end the current Iranian regime, of course. But if we're going to stay well short of that threshold, there might not be an alternative that would actually work.