Subject: Re: Beware the Ides of March ...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/18...

As of June 30, the top 20% of earners (those who make about $264,500 a year) accounted for more than 63% of all spending, and the top 10% (those who earn more than $353,000 a year) accounted for more than 49% — both the highest on record, according to data that goes back to 1989. In 2019, during the comparable period, those shares were 59.2% and 44.6%, respectively.

“If [the top-earners] turn more cautious in their spending, for whatever reason, the economy will suffer a recession,” (Zandi said). That could happen if there were a significant correction in stock prices, he said, since much of the wealth that fuels spending by those “well-to-do” individuals is tied to the robust financial markets.

The wealthiest households accounting for an even greater share of US spending growth is causing upward pressure on inflation and spurring speculative bets that could foment asset bubbles. That could make the United States more vulnerable to a potential recession in the process, but it also risks setting back some Americans for years to come.

As far as answering Timer321 (just one guy's opinion, but what the heck):

The US will not default. What they are likely to do is to inflate the currency to the point that, if they cannot keep the refinancing game going forever, they will pay off the bonds with nominally worthless currency.

Historically, FDIC deposit insurance levels have been increased several times since its creation in 1933. The coverage began at $2,500, quickly rose to $5,000 in 1934, and then to $10,000 in 1950. Subsequent increases brought the level to $15,000 (1966), $20,000 (1969), $40,000 (1974), and then to $100,000 in 1980. The most recent adjustment set the standard insurance amount to $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership category, which was enacted in 2010. If you graph against inflation, it's always been about the same relative value (they should eliminate the nickel and dime along with the penny and maybe bring out a $5 coin while they are at it). You might find that if they keep it at $250K it might buy a Big Mac - who knows).

Just remember - the currency carry trade favors major currencies with the highest interest rates.

Jeff