Subject: Re: Meanwhile, in Venezuela...
Let's say "controlling" production.

I don't think that's right. By all indications, Trump wants oil production to increase. He thinks that the more oil comes out of areas controlled by the U.S., the better it is. Oil = power, and he wants that power. And by all accounts, all of his internal policy discussions on the matter point to him wanting oil prices to stay low.

I know you're kind of sold on the idea that Trump wants to disrupt oil production to drive prices up, because that would help oil companies somewhat. But it doesn't help Trump - it just helps the oil companies. What helps Trump is if he's the gatekeeper for people to make money pumping oil in the largest oil reserves on earth. So 100%, he wants to get oil companies to boost oil production out of Venezuela, because that's where the U.S. and/or Trump personally (depending on your level of cynicism) can gain.

Now, this is a dumb idea. It's internally inconsistent to believe that there will be a massive investment in Venezuelan oil production and that prices will stay low. It doesn't make any economic sense to invest many billions of dollars in Venezuela to extract the specific type of oil they have (which is more expensive to produce and refine) at low oil prices. So they're not going to do it. God knows we don't need another "Krugman nails it" thread, but that's pretty much his point - there's no riches to be had in Venezuelan oil, because global oil prices are at a five year low.

That doesn't mean that massive investment won't happen there, of course. If the U.S. government pays for the oil majors to go in and make all that investment, then there's a ton of money to be made at the expense of the U.S. or Venezuelan taxpayer. So everyone's going to be very interested to see if the U.S. government is willing to be on the hook for supplying the capital for all this infrastructure. If we are, then there's riches to be had building roads and laying pipe and building wells and whatnot - even if the oil doesn't sell for enough to make that worthwhile.

But there's nothing at all to suggest that Trump's plan is to throttle Venezuelan production, rather than open the spigots.