Subject: Re: Why the border bill will fail
We know that NOW. But.... Russia's GDP is 29% military hardware and they aren't shabby at missiles, drones, etc. If you would tone down and be serious, Putin thought military hardware and numbers overcomes incompetence and he didn't understand how incompetent his army had become. Neither did we.


You need to look at their tactical and strategic position. Yes, that's a serious subject. Not sure why you don't think it is. Understanding strategic conflicts begin with understanding your adversary's goals, incentives and ability to project power.

What are Putin's goals? His goal is to re-unify what was once the Soviet Union and re-make them into a global power.

What are his incentives? His incentives are to solidify his power base by uniting his people under a nationalistic sense of pride for Mother Russia. Would distract from any problems in their real lives - this was how the Soviet Union worked - further helping him keep power.

What is their ability to project power? Abysmal. They can't even subdue a lightly armed neighbor, much less face NATO.

Having said all that, should be blow them off? No. NATO nations should have military readiness in case Putin were to start something as a favor to China, who is the real adversary.

And we should take it seriously. Can we handle two flashpoints and the Ukraine?

No, and this is the crux of the ammo shortage. We need more ammo plants built with the ones we have running 24/7/365.