Subject: Re: The Problem With Polymarket
there are scientific problems as well.
one common cliche is that betting markets must be better than polls since real money is stake.
but i have not seen any strong study that describes the amount of participants and the distribution of financial stakes that allows this to be a superior predictor, ESPECIALLY when the margin of error is relatively large and the odds are near even.

on the other hand, it does reflect a certain vibe when the disparity is great, but does it contradict reasonably constructed polls? that's doubtful.
https://polymarket.com/event/n...

always remember these are bookmakers, and exist to profit off adjusting money-weighted popularity.