Subject: Re: Record debt threatens growth
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Margin debt is at a record high. Here's what that means for the stock market, Oct 24, 2025
"margin debt is an excellent coincident indicator of the stock market. But that doesn't help us navigate the market. Only a good leading indicator does that. And that's where the margin indicator falls flat.

Consider the correlation between margin debt's trailing 12-month percentage change and the S&P 500's total return over the subsequent 12 months. Now the r-squared is an insignificant 2.6%. In other words, margin debt's trailing 12-month return explains or predicts just 2.6% of the stock market's subsequent 12-month return.

Margin debt's acceleration. One footnote to this discussion: There is limited evidence that a market top may be forming whenever margin debt grows significantly faster than the S&P 500."
https://www.morningstar.com/ne...