Subject: Re: Venezuela - Who and How
I'm not even sure if this administration realizes that this could disrupt oil for China (which it could...so that's one positive). I doubt anyone is thinking that far ahead.

That's not what matters. China is Venezuela's largest customers, but that oil only accounts for 4% of their total crude imports. So it's probably a trivial impact.

Where it does matter isn't China. It's Cuba.

China won't even notice an interruption in Venezuelan oil imports. Cuba might collapse without Venezuelan oil. They're barely keeping the lights on there these days anyway. If this action cuts off Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba, it could cause the country to completely disintegrate.

And you can abso-fucking-lutely bet that Marco Rubio is thinking that far ahead. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if disrupting Cuba is what Rubio sees as the most important consequence of the operation, whatever Trump's vision of rebuilt oil fields might be.

But again, if Rodriguez just simply steps in as Maduro's successor and runs the country going forward, it's hard to see how anything in the oil sector (or any other aspect of Venezuelan policy) really changes. Most of these things weren't personal to Maduro. I mean, he's a horrible guy and deserves everything that might be coming to him, but taking him out of the equation isn't likely to change very much if the government stays in power.