Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
I think this is the point that is nagging at me - that the current structure of the economy is favoring extremely large, highly profitable companies. Maybe their ability to generate excess cash and reinvest it in products that only they can scale effectively is an "unfair" advantage that is self re-enforcing.

This is entirely possible. I don't really disagree. If you think that trend will last, then you would be being well informed, sensible and consistent to want to overweight the very largest such firms. Perhaps by buying a fund that is overweight them, if that's your style.

My own point is merely that most people *don't* have a good idea what's going to happen next with specifics, or at least not ideas that are well enough grounded to be smarter than the average market participant, so they probably shouldn't be making big wagers on individual stocks. Whether by buying them individually, or by accident by buying very heavily concentrated funds.

From the 1987 annual report
“If you’ve been in the [poker] game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.
...
...
“If you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game.”

Phrased another way, the guy with the real edge will be the one to make the others bleed.

Jim