Subject: Re: Venezuela - Who and How
How is it any more toothless than it was two days ago?

You’re kidding, right?

Not at all. The entire power structure of the regime is still in place. Maduro isn't Chavez - he wasn't the one who built the "Bolivarian Revolution" or the authoritarian-military regime that currently governs Venezuela. He was the successor - he slotted in when Chavez died. The country wasn't held in place by his personal magnetism. He's been the continuity guy. Just like all our Cuban friends' hopes of change and freedom were dashed when the Castros' deaths didn't lead any material change in government policy or structure, there's no reason to think that removing Maduro will have any impact at all.

Because apart from Maduro no longer occupying the Presidency, nothing about Venezuela has changed. The government is still the same, all the macro political and economic factors that shaped the country haven't changed, and the system of electoral democracy is still broken such that the military is basically in charge. We're clearly not going to try to change that. We're not going to be moving to elections, we're not going to try to replace the current regime with the opposition (so sorry Machado), and we're not even going to try to disturb who succeeds Maduro. We're just going to hope that Rodriguez (if she's the one) will be more willing to cozy up to America than Maduro was. Which is just....absurd, given that we've literally just abducted their head of state in a fundamental invasion of their national sovereignty, which will make it all-but-impossible for the new head of state to foster a cooperative relationship with Washington without losing all their domestic political credibility.

So Venezuela is no more toothless today than it was two days ago. The military is still in control of the country - and it never posed any real threat to the U.S. to begin with. All of the factors which kept the Venezuelan economy locked in poverty remain in place, especially the government's reliance on current oil sector revenues to keep the budget from collapsing (which is the main reason why no one can invest in the industry there). All of the factors that kept Venezuela hostile to the U.S. are still in place - the government is still just as "Bolivarian" as it was, and they've now got this added humiliation and hostile act to foster their anti-Yanqui sentiment.

Why do you think anything's materially different than it was a few days ago? What do you think has changed?