Subject: Employment #s revised down
Let's say that there is a statistic that is critical for making economic decisions.

1. Create a government agency to collect the data. www.bls.gov

2. BLS is transparent about the fact that data will be delayed but publishes preliminary data.

3. BLS is underfunded so can't modernize.

4. BLS updates data -- sorry, preliminary employment numbers are low.

5. President fires BLS director (who has nothing to do with collecting data) with the spurious claim that low numbers were politically-motivated.

6. BLS budget is cut further so modernization is even further out of reach.

7. President nominates unqualified ideologue to run BLS. Until Congress can approve (or hopefully deny) this nomination the BLS is being run by a competent, experienced BLS veteran.

8. BLS gradually collects data as it becomes available and updates earlier estimates. This is routine.

9. New data shows -- oops! -- that almost a million jobs that were reported actually didn't exist. Will President fire the interim BLS chief?

10. Now what? Probably shock at the Federal Reserve. No question -- they will cut the fed funds rate.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/0...


Employers Added Fewer Jobs Than Believed, Updated Data Shows

Preliminary annual revisions could add to political pressure on the agency that produces the data.

By Ben Casselman, The New York Times, Sept. 9, 2025

The U.S. economy probably added close to a million fewer jobs in 2024 and early 2025 than previously reported, the latest sign that the labor market, until recently a bright spot in the economy, may be weaker than it initially appeared....

The data released on Tuesday showed that employers added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than had been indicated in the monthly payroll figures. That implies the economy added only about 850,000 jobs during that time — half as many as previously reported.

The report doesn’t directly affect the period since March. But the scale of the overestimate has led many economists to conclude that more recent job gains have probably also been overstated. That could concern policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who have been watching closely for signs that the labor market is losing momentum....

The revision announced on Tuesday (9/9/25) is preliminary and won’t be incorporated into the government’s official jobs figures until complete data is available early next year.... [end quote]

Will Congress appropriate more money for the BLS so it can modernize and get more timely, accurate reports? Would President allow that or (illegally) put the kibosh on the appropriation as he has done so many others?

The accuracy of BLS numbers is lower at trend changes in the economy. If we are heading toward recession the BLS will not capture the job losses, especially not of small businesses which employ so many but often don't respond to BLS queries.

Wendy