Subject: Re: Berkshire future returns
I kind of hate these discussions because it is of course impossible to know and you could take almost any period of time to skew it in whatever direction you wish to argue. It does however serve a useful purpose in getting the opposite opinion of the bull case which Berkshire shareholders (and me in particular) are certainly prone to.

With that said my guess is 8-10% long term.

I’m probably going to demonstrate some spectacular stupidity here, bvut that never stopped me before.

I’m expecting/counting on a point or two higher than the market, and staying ahead of inflation.

I really don’t hope for the kind of outstanding performance Buffett had (or even half) because, well, 1) Buffett. It’s like hoping for the same performance from Peter Lynch’s successor. You might get lucky, but those only come around every so often, and they’re not usually in the same cafeteria line.

Greg’s handling of the Energy business is excellent, and could translate elsewhere, but that would mean a big change in the way the company operates. If it is to be “Greg led”, then it’s not going to be as decentralized, which has been promoted as one of the elements of the “secret sauce” over the years. If Greg is going to dump poor performers, well OK, but that also argues against “family firms selling to keep things stable”. (That may have outgrown its usefulness, given the size of the company now, dunno. There are precious few private firms around which could move the needle, I’ll say.)

The returns on the cash and/or stock portfolio I would hope to be good, but again, is Greg a stock picker who has demonstrated that talent over multiple cycles? Not that I know of.

The company is pretty much, to misappropriate Paul Krugman’s remark about the US, an insurance company with an energy and railroad on the side. Oh, and a pile of cash and stuff. It will be interesting to see what it looks like 10 years from now, eh?

In short, I’m hoping for positive movement forward, but not the kinds of terrific performance (laces with periods of blah) we’ve come to expect. But that’s OK with me; I’m in the “wind down” phase, just trying to “stay rich.” I’d advise newbies trying to “get rich” to make this a small base, but look eslewhere for the big bonanzas.