Subject: Sea change in US policy
I was wondering if I should mark this "OT", but I believe, long term, it will potentially affect the US economy - and thus Berkshire Hathaway. Then I thought about posing it on one of the political boards - but I believe it's too important to bury in a bunch of partisan rhetoric. And METAR is too esoteric - so, for better ort worse, I'm posting it here.

President Donald Trump's administration has warned that Europe faces "civilisational erasure" and questioned whether certain nations can remain reliable allies, in a new strategy document that puts a particular focus on the continent. The new report doubles down on Trump's point of view, calling for the restoration of "Western identity", combatting foreign influence, ending mass migration, and focusing more on US priorities such as stopping drug cartels.

Focusing on Europe, it asserts that if current trends continue the continent would be "unrecognisable in 20 years or less" and its economic issues are "eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure".

"It is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies," the document states.

It also accused the European Union and "other transnational bodies" of carrying out activities that "undermine political liberty and sovereignty", said migration policies were "creating strife" and said other issues included "censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence".

Conversely, the document hails the growing influence of "patriotic European parties" and says "America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit":

https://www.bbc.com/news/artic...

The 33-page National Security Strategy sees the US leader outline his vision for the world and how he will wield US military and economic power to work towards it.

Trump described the document as a "roadmap" to ensure America remains "the greatest and most successful nation in human history".

https://www.bbc.com/news/artic...

The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week, a tight deadline that struck some European officials as unrealistic:

https://www.reuters.com/busine...

While bits and pieces are coming out in foreign news, the US has just issued a major policy change. Like an elephant being described by the blind, the following have cropped up:

US Strategy Urges Halt to NATO Expansion, Warns Europe of ‘Civilizational Erasure’:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/...

The Trump administration has privately informed European allies that Washington will no longer remain NATO’s primary conventional defense provider beyond 2027, three people familiar with classified conversations this week told Kyiv Post.

The development marks a dramatic shift that puts Europe on a strict countdown as war rages in Ukraine and uncertainty hangs over transatlantic security.

According to briefings delivered to European counterparts mid-week, senior Pentagon officials said the Indo-Pacific remains the administration’s top priority and that the US “cannot fight two wars at once,” making a structural transfer of NATO’s conventional defense responsibilities to Europe non-negotiable:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/...

I'm not going to comment on the obviously important societal/political challenges outlined in the report an the implications it makes about Europe's future. What is important here is the apparent deemphasizing of Europe to allow the US to presumably concentrate on eastern Asia/Oceania and South America.

Whether or not the US is able to force an end to the Russo-Ukraine war, it is likely that Europe is about to rearm as there is significant concern that Russia has further ambitions to continue moving its zone of influence further westward.

The US de-emphasizing of Europe not only encourages accelerated European spending on arms and, by implication, European-built arms. There are a number of stocks owned by Berkshire Hathaway, such as Mitsubishi (ship building) who could directly benefit from broader sourcing of weapons systems, but for those looking to diversify beyond the US defense contractors, the following might be interesting.

Some ideas:

- European diversification:
Germany (Rheinmetall)
UK (BAE, Rolls-Royce, QinetiQ, Chemring)
France (Thales, Dassault, Safran, Naval Group)
France/Germany (KNDS (Kalamazoo Naval Defense Systems)
Italy (Leonardo)
Sweden (Saab)
Norway (Kongsberg)
Finland/Norway (Nammo)
Turkey (MKEK)

- Asia-Pacific presence:
Japan (Mitsubishi, Kawasaki)
South Korea (Hanwha)
Israel (Elbit, IAI)

Jeff