Subject: Re: Are the Stars Aligning?
The majority of Americans already seem to be there. Trump has twice lost the popular vote.

--------------

True. What I was alluding to is the sliver of remaining "Republicans" who intellectually know Trump is horrendously flawed but still emotionally think they cannot support a non-Republican alternative (it really doesn't matter if it was Biden, Obama or Superman). How big is that sliver? I don't know exactly. A total of 155.4 million votes were cast in 2020. The margin between Biden and Trump was 7 million. If you beleive current polls, Biden is BEHIND either Trump or Haley. But a national poll doesn't mean anything because we don't vote in one big pool of 155.4 million votes. We have 50 individual elections courtesy of the Electoral College mechanism. I suspect when would-be Democratic voters get closer to election day, they will stop reflecting their utopian dream of an ideal candidate who isn't in the race and stop registering "protest votes" by stating some other preference in a meaningless poll. Biden's numbers will come up.

That means Biden still must win at least two or three of the big swing states. That means there might be about 3-4 million "Republicans" still currently stating support for Trump who need to come to grips with the Constitutional reality of what a vote for Trump could enable who need to either stay home or hold their nose and vote for a Democrat.

If there are that many "Republicans" in that state of disillusionment who might walk away from Trump and polls begin picking up on that after the Republican primary becomes an affait accompli and Trump becomes cemented onto the ballot, that could further depress the entire Republican party performance at the federal and state level.

As you said, the MAJORITY of Americans have twice clearly reflected their understanding that Trump is the wrong choice for America. The key question involves the preferences of voters who accidentally sit in a position of unexpected / undemocratic influence due to the vagaries of the Electoral College. If THAT sliver of voters wakes up and flees the Trump horror show, things could turn VERY dark for Republicans.

As things stand, things could turn very dark for the entire COUNTRY if fussy Democrats become apathetic for lack of the perfect candidate and stay home.


WTH