Subject: Re: Treasury Bond Yields Tank
In looking at some data related to the debt ceiling, I found the following links. I think federal interest outlays as percent of GDP is the canary:
around 1.5% from 1940 to 1978.
increases to 3.0 % from 1978 to 1985.
steady at 3.0% between 1985 and 1996.
decreases to about 1.5% from 1996 to 2002.
steady around 1.5% from 2002 to 2021.
probably headed higher.

The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2022: An Infographic, March 28, 2023
https://www.cbo.gov/publicatio...

FRED charts for U.S. federal outlays, revenue, deficit, debt, and interest as percentage of GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...

Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...