Subject: Re: Apple Vision
VR will truly take off when the headset comes close to as light and small as a sunglass. I think it's at least 5 years away.

I agree it will definitely take at least 5 years before the public truly catch on, however I would not be surprised if it does not become greatly lighter as forecast by everyone. The iPhone was seen as fairly bulky but we became used to it and continued to want the latest CPU, storage and longer battery life.

The main problem for a year or two won't be lack of demand but rather the lack of manufacturing capacity. Particularly the display.

Contrasting my earlier expectations for more than 1 million units in 2024 in demand, that probably won't be possible id only for the Sony supplied screens stuck at about 900,000 per year:

https://www.thelec.net/news/ar...

Remember the first year of the IPhone how difficult it was to get one with the limited supply. It created a good image, and we might have much of that phenomenon next year.

We might need to wait until about 2027 for the signifiant sales numbers, at which time the new app visionOS ecosystem will he starting to mature. 50 million units (one fifth the units of iPhones being sold now on trend) by 2028 wouldn't at all surprise me, and the price averaging perhaps around $2,500 but high end versions remaining over $5,000.

I obviously can't predict the future but it is still sane to to play with some numbers if only for some proportionality for how the product will effect Apple's earnings. 50 million units in 2028 at $2500 and a 40% gross margin would bring about $50 billion in earnings. It might take longer than 2028 but at some point I imagine one fifth of iphone buyers will want to use spacial computing even if only occasionally. Apple's advertising expense, on top of their software quality, will almost ensure it.

With the present approx $90 billion in earnings, an extra $50 doesn't quite double, however by 2033 more again will be using spacial computing. It will move to a double, and I don't think iPhone sales will slow down much, if at all.

The film industry I anticipate to reorient to releasing significantly more titles in 3D much, and demand for Apple services will likewise continue to rise.

It would make enormous sense for Apple to allow a movie screen to be shared with everyone nearby, at which time, if they agree, it appears in their view at the same room position. This would allow film to be watched together and enormously raise the value of the experience not to mention make the world psychologically less odd than it otherwise would be. This projected screen sharing idea (with fixed room position) has not been mentioned anywhere thus far to my knowledge, so if anyone at Apple is reading this, please pass this idea the the visionOS team.

- Manlobbi