Subject: Re: Reading tea leaves
Mark, you are reading it wrong.

"Q: Are annual RMDs required for inherited IRAs?
A: You transfer the assets into an Inherited IRA held in your name. Money is available: You must begin taking an annual RMD over your life expectancy beginning no later than 12/31 of the year following the original account holder's death."

It is still a bit complicated:
"In the recently issued final rules, the IRS confirmed that most beneficiaries must take annual RMDs throughout the 10 years, with the account fully depleted by the end of the tenth year.

This applies specifically to cases where the original account holder had already started taking RMDs before they passed away.

Exceptions to the rules:
If the original account holder passed away before reaching their RMD age, beneficiaries have more leeway in timing their withdrawals within the 10-year window.
But the account must still be emptied by the end of the 10 years.



Ah, here it is Pub 590B
"Payment under the 10-year rule.
If the IRA owner dies before the required beginning date [that is, before the decedent was taking RMDs] ... no distribution is required for any year before the 10th year."

So it depends on whether or not the person was taking RMDs, which used to be age 70 1/2, is now 73, and will be 75 in 2033.
Now the question is what percentage of people die before age 73 vs. how many die after 73. A quick search revealed "average life expectancy for a 65-year-old man is 83, female is 86." Upper income people (that is: us) live about 5 years longer.
So more retirees at 65 will die AFTER their RMD start date than before, so most inherited IRAs will have an RMD.

When you think about it, these days when you hear of somebody dying at 75, people say "That's a young age to die."

The rules are different for "eligible designated beneficiaries", but almost all people are NOT eligible.

Of course, if the inherited IRA is large you'd better take an annual distribution or you will get a huge taxable income in the 10th year.