Subject: Re: The Problem With Polymarket
Offshore betting markets like Polymarket mislead voters by substituting right-wing “vibes” for data.

I'm not sure I understand the argument that Polymarket is "misleading" voters - or trying to convince anyone of anything. They're running a betting site. The price for Trump vs. Harris contracts are set, like all prices, wherever the marginal buyer and the marginal seller line up. These aren't the analyses, predictions, or arguments of Polymarket (or any of the other betting sites) about how the site or the company thinks the election will turn out.

Plus....the odds being offered don't seem that far off to me? As of today, the price you get on Polymarket is similar to most of the other betting sites - about 60/40 in favor of Trump. Which seems pretty consistent with polling? Trump has a slight lead in the national polls (RCP average), within the margin of error but a slight lead in every swing state poll average (again RCP), and a history of somewhat outperforming his polling averages (presumably because he appeals to voters who don't regularly vote or participate in polls). So - 60/40 seems about right?