Subject: Re: Why Not O&G? Is it the IEA Energy Outlook_
You may have some valid points, but this isn’t one of them.

Googyhoofy,

I respect your comments about growth in light EV's. And I'll accept the challenge about them slowing down.

I think it's now a horse race in the US and Europe. I don't think the same in less developed countries. They're more starting from scratch, so they can build an EV based power distribution system. The US and Europe already have a fossil fuels system that works. So EVs face both a replacement challenge, higher prices, and the wait for a competitive power supply system. That's still to come.

Existing EV owners in the US and Europe seem to like their vehicles, and 90+% plan to buy a new one, based on surveys. Yet these were fueled by generous subsidies that seem to be going away in the US. What will the next wave of replacement into the ICE market bring?

And resale price are collapsing without incentives. Do the basic economics without the subsidies favor EV's?

Markets are different. China is still evolving theirs, so they can build mostly from the ground floor. And they're leading the world in EV technology. I see that continuing - that's why I said the US and Europe.

The latter are a different story. They had both the early adopters and with major incentives in the US. Will this hold up in the next wave? Resale prices for EV's in the US are collapsing. European EV manufacturers are pulling back from a sole EV future.

Here are results from a June 2025 survey by Shell Oil:

LONDON (Reuters) -Drivers are becoming more reluctant to switch to electric vehicles from combustion engines and the trend is more pronounced in Europe than in the United States, a survey published by Shell on Tuesday showed.

</\i>The main obstacle is cost, according to the survey of 15,000 drivers across the world, including Britain, China, Germany and the United States.

"Europe surprised us," said David Bunch, Shell's chief for mobility and convenience. "The single biggest barrier to entry is the cost of the vehicle. Range anxiety is still there but it's diminishing."

Electric vehicles are on average up to 30% more expensive than internal combustion engine cars.

This year, 41% of respondents in Europe said they would consider switching to an electric car compared with 48% last year, while in the United States the number fell three percentage points to 31%, the survey showed.

In terms of the pace at which the charging experience is improving, only about half of European drivers said public charging had improved in the last year, below China's 74% and 80% in the United States.

Only 17% of European drivers asked said public charging offered value for money, compared with 69% in China and 71% in the United States.

So, at best, I'll consider it a horse race still to be run. Low cost EV vehicles from China may simply just force the local companies out? Will this be permitted/

So I'll accept your challenge. As an aside, light vehicles only make up circa 25% of oil consumption. So it's going to take a really big penetration by EV's to offset growth in other consumptions.